Vegas And Analytics (Game 15)

KEY:

CF%=Corsi For %=Shot Attempts For/Total Shot Attempts

CA%=Corsi Against %=Shot Attempts Against/Total Shot Attempts

PDO=Save%+Shooting%

TPR=Total Play Rating (Not a completely verified stat) = (PDO-CA%)+(((MDSV+LDSV)/(MDSA+LDSA))x100)

I adjusted the TPR rating to be better suited for the goalie’s play in their game. Note the changes in the formula above.

CF%:

VGK: 5v5=56.52%

CA%:

VGK:5v5=43.48%

Vegas is really starting to struggle during this east coast trip. Dropping now to 1-4-1 during the trip, they have had struggles in their own zone, which by looking at the stats makes sense. The team has given up a goals against average of 4. Now I say team because goals against average is NOT a goaltending stat. For example, if a goalie makes 60 saves, but lets in 4 goals, his GAA (Goals against average) is still 4. That is the same as a goalie giving up 4 goals on 12 shots, for example. This is a team statistic, not a goalie one. Lagace has not been stellar for the team, but what does one expect from a young kid who was not even supposed to be a starter in the AHL this season. Overall, Vegas has had good possession numbers, especially in this game against Montreal. They lost the game 3-2, and it is due to a poor start. Two goals in the first 10 minutes or so of the game to go down 2-0 is hard to come back from, and couple this with fatigue from the road trip is not easy whatsoever. Vegas did claw back into the game, but still suffered defeat. Looking at the graph below, it is evident that Vegas’ start is what to look at as their failure this game, but played much better after the 45-minute mark or so.

vgkmtl.png

PDO:

VGK:95.74

TPR:

VGK: 147.00

The Knights’ TPR this game is about 10 points higher than their last three games averaged out. During that 1-1-1 stretch, their TPR was at 137.17. Although their TPR went up, it was not enough to capture the victory. I am noticing a trend with TPR, if a team has a TPR at 150 or above, their chances of winning increase significantly compared to if it were to be below 150. Lagace is starting to play a little bit better, and Fleury is expected back as soon as next week. Vegas’ offense is really coming into their own, and the defense is strengthening up with the addition of Theodore. Once the goaltending situation comes back up to earth, who knows with them. They sit right now at 9-5-1, and second in the Pacific. Can we see this new expansion team make the playoffs? Stay Tuned!

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