The Lighting came out a different team for game three, they won with comfort and now have a little more confidence and momentum going into game four. The thing with the playoffs this year too is that the road teams seem to have the advantage as road teams heading into tonight’s game are 8-2.
The Lighting came out a little better in game three, the Capitals certainly matched their play but thanks to some big saves by Andrei Vasilevskiy and a big time game from the Lightning’s big three they now have a chance to even this series at two heading home to Tampa for game five.
The Lighting will not have the same result on many things they did in game three as we can expect the Capitals to come out a bit better and possibly pop the first goal. The Capitals took 5 penalties which allowed the Lighting to score 2 times on those five chances, which as by the looks of things was the difference maker. Some keys for the Capitals heading into game four are…
Three Keys for Washington
(1) Score first. The Capitals have scored first in the first two games and when they do they seem to carry a lot of momentum and things just seem to go their way more often. Plus if you can score first and get the road team on their heels that is good news. It sounds harder than it is, but the Capitals really need to come out in the first and just put pucks deep and on net. When the Capitals had their fore-check going and they were turning around the Lighting’s defense they saw more offensive pressure and chances.
(2) Limit the Lightning’s power play chances. the only way the Lighting are winning if they score on the power play it seems as they have 7 of their 12 goals on the power play this series. Pretty obvious, so stay out of the box.
(3) Play simple early. To get a road team tired and on their heels early in the game is important. By chipping and chasing for the first 15 minutes of the first to tire out the Lightning’s defense will be huge. The Capitals need to utilize that third and fourth line more often and have them just go out, bang bodies and cause some havoc. Just keep the game simple and don’t give the Lighting much offensive room.
What Vegas is saying…
The line opened at -105 for Tampa Bay and -115 for Washington which means nothing, because that’s nonsense. But right now at the moment at (9:10 am EST) the line is Tampa +100 and Washington -120. Which essentially means there is no clear favorite so either or the books are saying, basically anyone can take this game. The over under is 5.5 goals which we have been seeing almost every game this series it has hit above 5.5. I think just taking the over/under is a solid choice. The books are tough right now because looking at 13 other sites it also saying Tampa to be around +100 to +105 most and Washington to be -110 to -120 most. The books are saying there is no favorite basically so this is a tough one. Clearly this will change as the day goes on and bets come in for either team, but right now stay put and don’t do anything. As of now it is 58 percent Tampa Bay and 64 percent Washington in terms of bets already made.