As we all know there were two BIG trades the other day. One that involved Max Pacioretty and Erik Karlsson. But in that trade their were some other players that moving into their new role with their new team may also provide some fantasy impact.
But as you can tell by the title does this downgrade Erik Karlsson fantasy value? Well what do you think. I mean let’s be serious here. Karlsson thrived because he was the guy in Ottawa there was no one else to steal his fire power and he was able to play his game on his terms. Now obviously Karlsson will not be paired with Brent Burns still allowing him to play his game on either line one or two d-pairing but when it comes to power play time who is going to be the guy? Burns or Karlsson? What happens now? Karlsson usually logs around 20-30 power play points and Burns usually logs around the same. It will not be possible for Burns and Karlsson to have 25+ power play points each playing on the same power play. Which is why I ask, does this degrade Karlsson’s value? Or does it downgrade Burns value? This is obviously great for the Sharks but for us fantasy owners, what do you do?
Here is my take on this and predictions for Burns and Karlsson:
Karlsson plays a full 82 game season, logging d-pair two minutes, playing power play one time I think he comes in at about 70 points, possibly more but not much. He’ll have to rely a lot on 5 on 5 points. Same for Burns, Burns usually has a lot of success on the power play therefore it can be wary for Burns owners this year. Either way Burns can come in hotter out the gate this year and perhaps slow down a little but I think Burns comes in at around 60-65 points, he’ll have a similar year like last year, nothing to crazy. He won’t be having a ton pleasure on the power play with Karlsson but still he will be a solid 60-65 point defenseman.
The value of Pacioretty now…
Max Pacioretty, well the guy has scored 30 goals four-times in his career and all with Montreal. His highest point total of 67 points coming in 2014-15. Pacioretty will be around that same mark, he will be with a veteran center in Paul Statsny an electric young forward in Alex Tuch. Playing around 17+ minutes a game as well on the first power play, probably being the “guy” offsetting William Karlsson. I have to say this will be a great year for Pacioretty and he will benefit greatly from this trade and at 29-years-old he is at the perfect age for a 38 goal, 23 assist year.
Tomas Tartar, Chris Tierney, Dylan DeMelo predictions
I think this is provides major upside for DeMelo and Tartar. For two reasons, one Tartar will be the guy on that second line in Montreal he has proven to be a 20+ goal scorer in the same scenario with Detroit and now he is going to Montreal with the same situation at hand. Not a lot of weapons around him but just him being the main scorer. Tartar could very well benefit from this, I think we can expect 27 goals, 17 assists from Tartar this year. Think about it, he thrived in Detroit when he was in this situation, coming out of Vegas where he did not fit well to be a veteran goal scorer on a young Montreal team it could be beneficial. He’ll play power play two(as of now) and be paired with Phillip Danault and Artturi Lehkonen on line two. A top six forward again, power play time and logging 20 minutes, Tartar may excel.
For DeMelo this is provides major upside because now he will be logging major minutes in Ottawa on the second pair and possibly power play two. I don’t think we see major production from DeMelo but we can expect an uptick in numbers from him. If I had to say numbers wise form DeMelo he tallies 8 goals, 20 assists, not bad numbers but better than his last year.
For Tierney this may be good or bad. He showed some positive signs last year and seemed to be really enjoying his time in San Jose to be ripped out of that and thrown into a dumpster fire like Ottawa it may not be great for the up and coming young forward. Or it can play the other way where Tierney thrives off the move and enjoys his time in Ottawa, which I doubt. Either way I see Tierney producing around 15 goals, 18 assists. This is off the contingency now with Jean Gabriel Pageau out for the first 4-6 weeks, this gives Tierney the opportunity to play on the second line with Brady Tkachuk and Ryan Dzingel the only way Tierney is somewhat relevant next year is if he is in this top six, if not he’ll be a bottom six forward and producing at around 20 points next year.